DOI: 10.1002/joc.6011
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061426962
论文题名: Re-examining the decadal change of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea around the mid-1990s
作者: Cao X. ; Wu R. ; Zhan Y.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: different timescales
; inter-decadal change
; local and instantaneous perspective
; South China Sea
; TC genesis
Scopus关键词: Random processes
; Stochastic systems
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Vorticity
; Dominant contributions
; Interdecadal
; local and instantaneous perspective
; Outgoing longwave radiation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; South China sea
; Time-scales
; Tropical cyclogenesis
; Oceanography
英文摘要: A distinct inter-decadal increase of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency occurred over the South China Sea (SCS) around the mid-1990s. Previous studies linked this TC frequency increase to changes in seasonal mean background fields and in the intensity of intra-seasonal oscillations according to regional and seasonal mean fields. The present study compares the contributions of environmental factors on different timescales to inter-decadal change of the SCS TC frequency from a local and instantaneous perspective. It is shown that the intra-seasonal variations of lower-level vorticity, mid-level specific humidity, and vertical motion have a dominant contribution to the SCS TC genesis during both 1979–1993 and 1994–2002. The inter-annual anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and vertical motion display an increase of favourable state near TC genesis regions at the mid-1990s. The intra-seasonal components of favourable OLR and vertical motion anomalies are larger in the latter period than in the former period. The synoptic components of favourable lower-level vorticity, vertical wind shear, and mid-level specific humidity anomalies increase from the former period to the latter period. The present study shows that the contributions of environmental factors to the SCS TC frequency have increased on different timescales around the mid-1990s. The results suggest that this inter-decadal increase of TC frequency may include both effects of dynamical-driven changes and stochastic processes. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116631
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; The Weather Modification Office of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning, China
Recommended Citation:
Cao X.,Wu R.,Zhan Y.. Re-examining the decadal change of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea around the mid-1990s[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01