DOI: 10.1002/joc.5782
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052930301
论文题名: Is there a quiescent typhoon season over the western North Pacific following a strong El Niño event?
作者: Wang C. ; Wu L. ; Zhao H. ; Cao J. ; Tian W.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 1 起始页码: 61
结束页码: 73
语种: 英语
英文关键词: genesis frequency
; large-scale conditions
; strong El Niño ensuing TC season
Scopus关键词: Hurricanes
; Nickel compounds
; Storms
; Superconducting materials
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Cyclonic circulation
; genesis frequency
; Historical records
; Large scale conditions
; North indian oceans
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Western North Pacific
; Oceanography
; anomaly
; climatology
; cooling
; El Nino
; sea surface temperature
; typhoon
; warming
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Previous studies found that tropical cyclone (TC) formation is generally suppressed over the western North Pacific (WNP) following strong El Niño events. The 2015/2016 event is identified as one of the three major El Niño events since 1950. However, a climatological average of 26 named TCs occurred over the WNP in 2016. The plausible causes for this inconsistency are investigated in this study. By examining the historical records, we also found that 28 named TCs occurred over the WNP following 1991/1992 El Niño. For most strong El Niño cases, the suppressed TC formation in the ensuing early season (January–June) can persist to the peak season and lead to the negative TC frequency anomalies. However, TC formation turns to be active during August–October in 1992 and 2016, offsetting the suppressed TC formation in the early season and thus resulting in the climatological annual TC counts. It is found that anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling over the north Indian Ocean and SST warming over the tropical North Pacific contribute to the enhanced TC formation in 1992 by stimulating an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the WNP, while the tri-polar SST pattern across the tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean and the related convergence zone over 130°–160°E are responsible for the enhanced TC formation in 2016. The results indicate the crucial role of SST evolution over the north Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific in TC formation following strong El Niño events, which has important implication for the seasonal forecasting of TC activity over the WNP. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116660
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, and Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Wang C.,Wu L.,Zhao H.,et al. Is there a quiescent typhoon season over the western North Pacific following a strong El Niño event?[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(1)