DOI: 10.1002/joc.5825
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052808844
论文题名: Added value of dynamical downscaling for hydrological projections in the Chungju Basin, Korea
作者: Lee M.-H. ; Lu M. ; Im E.-S. ; Bae D.-H.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 1 起始页码: 516
结束页码: 531
语种: 英语
英文关键词: dynamical downscaling
; hydrological response to climate change
; statistical bias correction
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Runoff
; Climate change scenarios
; Dynamical downscaling
; Geographical features
; Global climate model
; Hydrological extremes
; Hydrological response
; Regional climate modeling (RCM)
; Statistical bias
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; correction
; downscaling
; extreme event
; global climate
; hydrological response
; precipitation (climatology)
; Chungju Lake
; North Chungcheong
; South Korea
英文摘要: In this study, we assess whether dynamical downscaling using a regional climate model (RCM) would provide added value against the driving global climate model (GCM) and whether a statistically bias-corrected GCM could be used as an alternative to a bias-corrected RCM for assessing the hydrological response to climate change. The target region is the Chungju Basin in Korea, which is characterized by complex geographical features. The analysis focuses on runoff simulations driven by raw outputs and bias-corrected outputs from the HadGEM2-AO and RegCM4, which are used to generate national standard climate change scenarios throughout the Korean Peninsula. Statistical methods, such as linear scaling and quantile mapping, improve the performance in precipitation simulations and effectively correct the systematic biases seen with the climatological means of the HadGEM2-AO and RegCM4. Although there is no relevant difference between the bias-corrected HadGEM2-AO and RegCM4 in terms of long-term averaged climatology, the bias-corrected RegCM4 performs better in capturing the dominant mode of runoff variability and hydrological extremes (e.g., floods measured by 1-day maximum runoff and droughts measured by the standardized runoff index). Because the magnitude of the bias correction factor tends to influence the preservation of future change signals derived from raw and bias-corrected outputs, the HadGEM2-AO, which requires a large bias correction factor to compensate for poor performance, produces future changes in high flows with low coherence between the raw and bias-corrected projections. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116673
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong; Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Lee M.-H.,Lu M.,Im E.-S.,et al. Added value of dynamical downscaling for hydrological projections in the Chungju Basin, Korea[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(1)