DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.04.004
论文题名: Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices
作者: Gu X. ; Zhang Q. ; Singh V.P. ; Chen X. ; Liu L.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2016
卷: 142 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 13
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Flooding forecasting
; GAMLSS
; Kernel estimation
; Non-stationarity
; Occurrence rates of floods
; Tarim River basin
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Flood control
; Rivers
; Statistical methods
; Statistical tests
; Watersheds
; Akaike information criterion
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; GAMLSS
; Generalized additive model
; Kernel estimation
; Non-stationarities
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Tarim River basin
; Floods
; flood forecasting
; flood frequency
; hazard management
; hydrological modeling
; numerical method
; precipitation assessment
; prediction
; river basin
; seasonality
; temperature effect
; China
; Tarim River
; Xinjiang Uygur
英文摘要: Amplification of floods in the Xinjiang, China, has been observed, but reports on their changing properties and underlying mechanisms are not available. In this study, occurrence rates of floods in the Tarim River basin, the largest inland arid river basin in China, were analyzed using the Kernel density estimation technique and bootstrap resampling method. Also analyzed were the occurrence rates of precipitation extremes using the POT (Peak over Threshold)-based sampling method. Both stationary and non-stationary models were developed using GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) to model flood frequency with time, climate index, precipitation and temperature as major predictors. Results indicated: (1) two periods with increasing occurrence of floods, i.e., the late 1960s and the late 1990s with considerable fluctuations around 2-3 flood events during time intervals between the late 1960s and the late 1990s; (2) changes in the occurrence rates of floods were subject to nonstationarity. A persistent increase of flood frequency and magnitude was observed during the 1990s and reached a peak value; (3) AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and AO (Atlantic Oscillation) in winter were the key influencing climate indices impacting the occurrence rates of floods. However, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and SOI (South Oscillation Index) are two principle factors that influence the occurrence rates of regional floods. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values indicated that compared to the influence of climate indices, occurrence rates of floods seemed to be more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Results of this study are important for flood management and development of mitigation measures. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84964989164&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2016.04.004&partnerID=40&md5=0394fd225b641ffeb766f3e16cf45ea0
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11670
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
Recommended Citation:
Gu X.,Zhang Q.,Singh V.P.,et al. Nonstationarity in the occurrence rate of floods in the Tarim River basin, China, and related impacts of climate indices[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2016-01-01,142.