DOI: 10.1002/joc.5818
论文题名: Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981–2010 compared with preindustrial levels
作者: Iizumi T. ; Shiogama H. ; Imada Y. ; Hanasaki N. ; Takikawa H. ; Nishimori M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 14 起始页码: 5405
结束页码: 5417
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; crop yields
; detection and attribution
; ensemble simulations
; losses and damages
; production losses
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Damage detection
; Earth atmosphere
; Uncertainty analysis
; Agricultural productions
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Crop yield
; Detection and attributions
; Ensemble simulation
; Process-based modelling
; Production loss
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop production
; crop yield
; ensemble forecasting
; maize
; soybean
; wheat
; Glycine max
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
英文摘要: The accumulated evidence indicates that agricultural production is being affected by climate change. However, most of the available evidence at a global scale is based on statistical regressions. Corroboration using independent methods, specifically process-based modelling, is important for improving our confidence in the evidence. Here, we estimate the impacts of climate change on the global average yields of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans for 1981–2010, relative to the preindustrial climate. We use the results of factual and non-warming counterfactual climate simulations performed with an atmospheric general circulation model that do and do not include anthropogenic forcings to climate systems, respectively, as inputs into a global gridded crop model. The results of a 100-member ensemble climate and crop simulation suggest that climate change has decreased the global mean yields of maize, wheat and soybeans by 4.1, 1.8 and 4.5%, respectively, relative to the counterfactual simulation (preindustrial climate), even when carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization and agronomic adjustments are considered. For rice, no significant impacts (−1.8%) are detected. The uncertainties in estimated yield impacts represented by the 90% probability interval that are derived from the ensemble members are −8.5 to +0.5% for maize, −8.4 to −0.5% for soybeans, −9.6 to +12.4% for rice and − 7.5 to +4.3% for wheat. Based on the yield impacts, the estimates of average annual production losses throughout the world for the most recent years of the study (2005–2009) account for 22.3 billion USD (B$) for maize, 6.5 B$ for soybeans, 0.8 B$ for rice and 13.6 B$ for wheat. Our assessment confirms that climate change has modulated recent yields and led to production losses, and our adaptations to date have not been sufficient to offset the negative impacts of climate change, particularly at lower latitudes. © 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116728
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan; Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; Disaster Reduction and Environmental Engineering Department, Kozo Keikaku Engineering Inc, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Iizumi T.,Shiogama H.,Imada Y.,et al. Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981–2010 compared with preindustrial levels[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(14)