DOI: 10.1002/joc.5717
论文题名: Assessing the reliability and uncertainties of projected changes in precipitation and temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models over the Lake Chad basin
作者: Nkiaka E. ; Nawaz R. ; Lovett J.C.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 14 起始页码: 5136
结束页码: 5152
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate projections
; CMIP5
; Lake Chad basin
; reliability ensemble averaging
; simple model averaging
; uncertainty quantification
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Lakes
; Reliability
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate projection
; CMIP5
; Ensemble averaging
; Lake Chad basins
; Simple modeling
; Uncertainty quantifications
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate prediction
; CMIP
; ensemble forecasting
; numerical model
; precipitation assessment
; uncertainty analysis
; Lake Chad
英文摘要: Lake Chad lost more than 80% of its surface area over the past decades as a result of environmental change and climate variability. It is not yet known how climate change will affect water resources availability in the basin over the coming decades. In this study, the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique was used to evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating present-day precipitation and temperature (1980–2005), and to quantify the uncertainties in future projections (2050–2075) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Lake Chad basin (LCB). Analyses were carried out at both annual and seasonal timescales. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulated precipitation better than temperature in the study area. Although the models were able to simulate the annual precipitation cycle in the basin, most models overestimated precipitation during the dry season and underestimated it during the monsoon season. Future annual basin precipitation is projected to increase by 2.5 and 5%, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario by the middle of the century by most of the models and most of the model projections are within the REA uncertainty range. Despite the increase in projected annual precipitation in the basin, most models project a decrease in monsoon precipitation under both RCPs. Although the uncertainty range for future precipitation projections for most models lie within the range of natural climate variability, additional analysis is needed for results to be useful for any future planning in the study area. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116742
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Civil & Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Nkiaka E.,Nawaz R.,Lovett J.C.. Assessing the reliability and uncertainties of projected changes in precipitation and temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models over the Lake Chad basin[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(14)