globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5686
论文题名:
Extreme rainfall indices in Distrito Federal, Brazil: Trends and links with El Niño southern oscillation and Madden–Julian oscillation
作者: Borges P.D.A.; Bernhofer C.; Rodrigues R.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:12
起始页码: 4550
结束页码: 4567
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Brazil ; Distrito Federal ; ENSO ; extreme indices ; MJO ; rainfall ; trends ; verânico
Scopus关键词: Agriculture ; Atmospheric pressure ; Climate change ; Drought ; Flood control ; Information management ; Land use ; Potable water ; Water management ; Water supply ; Brazil ; Distrito Federal ; ENSO ; extreme indices ; trends ; Rain
英文摘要: This study investigates trends and the effects of the interannual and intraseasonal climate variability on the extreme weather of Brazil's capital city Distrito Federal (DF). This area is highly vulnerable to climate variability, having suffered from droughts and floods that affected the drinking water supply and agriculture. We perform trend analysis of 12 rainfall-related indices from 13 ground observation stations and assess the influence of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on rainfall totals and extreme indices. The trend analysis confirms: (a) the increase of the dry spells length and (b) the anticipation of the onset of dry periods at regional level. That is also true when considering dry spells in the rainy season, a hazard known in the agriculture sector as “verânico.” On the other hand, extreme wet conditions became less severe in the last decades. Supressed monthly rainfall conditions, and some wet indices, are associated with La Niña episodes. The MJO's intraseasonal variability seems to play a substantial role in DF's climate. MJO phases 3, 7 and 8 are associated to enhanced rainfall conditions; whereas rainfall is supressed during phase 5. Moreover, dry spells during the rainy season, or “verânico,” often coincide with MJO phase 5. When combined with ENSO, the basic response of rainfall to MJO activity changes substantially showing statistically significant influence of El Niño on phases 2 and 8; while La Niña on phases 4, 6 and 7. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the ongoing changes in extreme climate as well as the influence of natural climate variability on local's climate, information that can be used in the management of water resources and land use of DF. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116775
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作者单位: Centro de Ciências Físicas e Matemáticas - CFM, Programa de Pós-graduaçóo em Oceanografia, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianópolis, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianópolis, Brazil; Department of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden (TU Dresden), Tharandt, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Borges P.D.A.,Bernhofer C.,Rodrigues R.. Extreme rainfall indices in Distrito Federal, Brazil: Trends and links with El Niño southern oscillation and Madden–Julian oscillation[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(12)
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