DOI: 10.1002/joc.5727
论文题名: Projected changes in summer precipitation over East Asia with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model during 21st century
作者: Woo S. ; Singh G.P. ; Oh J.-H. ; Lee K.-M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 12 起始页码: 4610
结束页码: 4631
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AGCM
; climate change
; EASM
; extreme precipitation events
; RCP scenarios
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Clouds
; Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; AGCM
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; EASM
; East Asian summer monsoon
; Extreme precipitation events
; Precipitation indices
; RCP scenarios
; Atmospheric humidity
; atmospheric general circulation model
; atmospheric moisture
; climate change
; extreme event
; geopotential
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; summer
; twenty first century
; China
; Japan
; Korea
英文摘要: We provide a broad view of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and their changes in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using a high-resolution (at 40 km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The simulated fields are validated against the multiple observational data sets in the reference period (1979–2008). Validation of seasonal simulated global climatology and EASM precipitation, annual cycle and various circulation fields including 25 individual Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP5 MME suggests that AGCM can be used to study the future projected characteristics of EASM. An investigation of uncertainty in precipitation shows larger values in the regions of high-precipitation belt and low terrain. Future projections are categorized as near (2010–2039), mid (2040–2069) and far (2070–2100) futures. The model projects an increased summer precipitation of about 3.2% (2.3%) in near future, about 4.5% (4.5%) in mid-future and about 2.4% (2.3%) in far future over East Asia region under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios when compared to the reference period. As far as regional landmasses are concerned, model projects a gradual increase in the range of 5–15% over northeast China, coastal regions of southern China, Korea and Japan regions and a decrease of about 5–10% over southeastern and northwest parts of East Asia during the 21st century. The projected increase of EASM can be attributed to an increase in atmospheric moistures (relative humidity) over the east coast of China, Korea and northeast China and north and northwestwards enhancement of eddy geopotential height. Extreme events are examined by using various precipitation indices over EASM regions. Results indicate that the indices of heavy precipitation are projected to increase (both frequency and intensity) over Korea, Japan and northeast China in the range of 5–20%, indicating strong sensitivity of EASM to global warming. © 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116776
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea; Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; CRAY Korea Inc., Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Woo S.,Singh G.P.,Oh J.-H.,et al. Projected changes in summer precipitation over East Asia with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model during 21st century[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(12)