globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5505
论文题名:
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level
作者: Montroull N.B.; Saurral R.I.; Camilloni I.A.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:8
起始页码: 3355
结束页码: 3368
语种: 英语
英文关键词: global mean temperature target ; hydrology ; La Plata basin ; regional hydrology impact
Scopus关键词: Decision making ; Evapotranspiration ; Global warming ; Hydrology ; Runoff ; Water management ; Global-mean temperature ; Hydrological impacts ; Hydrometeorological variables ; Increasing temperatures ; La Plata basin ; Pre-industrial levels ; Regional hydrologies ; Variable infiltration capacities ; Industrial emissions ; air temperature ; evapotranspiration ; global warming ; hydrological modeling ; hydrological response ; infiltration ; precipitation (climatology) ; regional climate ; river basin ; river discharge ; runoff ; France ; Ile de France ; La Plata Basin ; Paris ; Ville de Paris
英文摘要: The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paraná, Iguazú and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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被引频次[WOS]:16   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116866
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (UBA-CONICET), UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, and Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEN, UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina

Recommended Citation:
Montroull N.B.,Saurral R.I.,Camilloni I.A.. Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(8)
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