DOI: 10.1002/joc.5479
论文题名: Observed and modelled temperature and precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia from 1972 to 2010
作者: Cheong W.K. ; Timbal B. ; Golding N. ; Sirabaha S. ; Kwan K.F. ; Cinco T.A. ; Archevarahuprok B. ; Vo V.H. ; Gunawan D. ; Han S.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 7 起始页码: 3013
结束页码: 3027
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate model evaluation
; observations
; rainfall extremes
; Southeast Asia
; temperature extremes
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Rain
; Model evaluation
; Observations
; Rainfall extremes
; Southeast Asia
; Temperature extremes
; Climate models
; adaptive management
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; Indian Ocean Dipole
; observational method
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; trend analysis
; twentieth century
; twenty first century
; Southeast Asia
英文摘要: Regional assessments of trends in climate extremes are necessary for countries to make informed decisions about adaptation strategies and to put these changes into a global context. A workshop bringing together several Southeast Asian countries has delivered a new set of daily weather observations suitable to analyse the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes between 1972 and 2010. The use of a consistent and widely tested methodology in this study allows a direct comparison with results from other parts of the world. Trends in a range of climate extremes indices were assessed focusing on spatial variation in these trends. For most locations temperature trends obtained in this study appear broadly consistent with previous assessments; for some locations stronger trends have been detected through the inclusion of new data. In contrast to earlier studies, evidence of trends in precipitation extremes is emerging, with significant increasing trends in both regional and subregional data. In addition, large correlations between regional rainfall extremes and large-scale features such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole were identified. Finally, the observed trends are compared with a regional climate model reconstruction of the historical period. It was found that the model captures very well the trends and spatial variation of temperature extremes across the region, albeit with an underestimation of the more extreme indices. In contrast, the trends in precipitation extremes are largely overestimated, particularly in the western side of Southeast Asia. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116890
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Meteorological Service, Singapore; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Brunei Meteorological Service, Department of Civil Aviation, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam; Malaysian Meteorological Department, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Department of Science and Technology, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Diliman Quezon City, Philippines; Thai Meteorological Department, Bangkok, Thailand; National, Weather Forecasting Center, Hanoi, Viet Nam; Meteorological and Geophysical Agency, Jakarta, Indonesia; Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Naypyidaw, Myanmar
Recommended Citation:
Cheong W.K.,Timbal B.,Golding N.,et al. Observed and modelled temperature and precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia from 1972 to 2010[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(7)