DOI: 10.1002/joc.5463
论文题名: Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)
作者: Balaji M. ; Chakraborty A. ; Mandal M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 6 起始页码: 2819
结束页码: 2837
语种: 英语
英文关键词: accumulated cyclone energy
; change-point analysis and north Indian Ocean
; tropical cyclone activity
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Hurricanes
; Satellites
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Wind
; Accumulated cyclone energies
; Change-point analysis
; Environmental factors
; North indian oceans
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Statistical significance
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Western North Pacific
; Oceanography
; climatology
; environmental factor
; satellite data
; satellite imagery
; sea surface temperature
; statistical analysis
; tropical cyclone
; upper ocean
; water vapor
; wind velocity
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Recent findings have raised the debate on increase in tropical cyclone activity (TCA) in major tropical ocean basins like North Atlantic and western North Pacific. To address the similar evidence in North Indian Ocean (NIO) basins, an attempt has been made in the present study to investigate TCA in NIO basins in the context of warmer climate during the satellite era (1981–2014). The most suitable cyclone energy metric called accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is estimated for this purpose. A statistical change-point analysis is conducted to detect the shift in ACE during the study period. Environmental factors influencing TCA are investigated to infer possible causes in the observed variability. The results indicate the increasing trend in ACE in NIO during satellite era with statistical significance of 95%. The frequency and duration of intense cyclones (wind speed >64 knots) show notable increase in recent years. However, a decreasing trend is observed in total frequency. The change-point analysis of ACE in NIO reveals objectively that the shift occurs in 1997, with 20.8 ACE during 1981–1996 and 41.4 ACE during 1997–2014. The analysis reveals that increase in number and duration of very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) (wind speed >64 knots) in the recent epoch (1997–2014) is the major cause for the observed twofold increase in ACE. Also, the mean genesis location of intense BoB cyclones exposes a longitudinal eastwards shift of 2.3° in the recent epoch, which could have aided the longevity of intense cyclones. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST), upper ocean heat content (UOHC) and genesis potential index (GPI) climatology shows a positive agreement to the observed shift in genesis. The analysis of seven environmental factors shows substantial agreement with the increase and variability of ACE. Predominantly, atmospheric water vapour and SST show better correlation (.72 and.66) with ACE in NIO. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116892
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, India
Recommended Citation:
Balaji M.,Chakraborty A.,Mandal M.. Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(6)