| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.01.003
|
| 论文题名: | Hydrologic sensitivity of Indian sub-continental river basins to climate change |
| 作者: | Mishra V.; Lilhare R.
|
| 刊名: | Global and Planetary Change
|
| ISSN: | 0921-8181
|
| 出版年: | 2016
|
| 卷: | 139 | | 起始页码: | 78
|
| 结束页码: | 96
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Climate Change
; Evapotranspiration
; Hydrologic Sensitivity
; Runoff
; Streamflow
|
| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Evapotranspiration
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Sensitivity analysis
; Soil moisture
; Stream flow
; Water management
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Continental basins
; Future climate projections
; Hydrologic process
; Hydrologic Sensitivity
; Mean air temperatures
; Soil water assessment tool
; Water availability
; Water management strategies
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; error correction
; evapotranspiration
; future prospect
; hydrological cycle
; precipitation (climatology)
; river basin
; runoff
; sensitivity analysis
; soil water potential
; spatiotemporal analysis
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; water availability
; Ganges Basin
; Godavari Basin
; India
|
| 英文摘要: | Climate change may pose profound implications for hydrologic processes in Indian sub-continental river basins. Using downscaled and bias corrected future climate projections and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we show that a majority of the Indian sub-continental river basins are projected to shift towards warmer and wetter climate in the future. During the monsoon (June to September) season, under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (8.5), the ensemble mean air temperature is projected to increase by more than 0.5 (0.8), 1.0 (2.0), and 1.5 (3.5) °C in the Near (2010-2039), Mid (2040-2069), and End (2070-2099) term climate, respectively. Moreover, the sub-continental river basins may face an increase of 3-5. °C in the post-monsoon season under the projected future climate. While there is a large intermodel uncertainty, robust increases in precipitation are projected in many sub-continental river basins under the projected future climate especially in the Mid and End term climate. A sensitivity analysis for the Ganges and Godavari river basins shows that surface runoff is more sensitive to change in precipitation and temperature than that of evapotranspiration (ET). An intensification of the hydrologic cycle in the Indian sub-continental basins is evident in the projected future climate. For instance, for Mid and End term climate, ET is projected to increase up to 10% for the majority of the river basins under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the monsoon season, ensemble mean surface runoff is projected to increase more than 40% in 11 (15) basins under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Moreover, streamflow is projected to increase more than 40% in 8 (9) basins during the monsoon season under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Results show that water availability in the sub-continental river basins is more sensitive towards changes in the monsoon season precipitation rather than air temperature. While in the majority of the sub-continental river basins, water availability is projected to increase, spatial and temporal (interannual) variability in the monsoon season precipitation under the projected future climate may play a significant role. Changes in the hydrologic processes under the projected future climate indicate that substantial efforts may be required to develop water management strategies in the Indian sub-continental river basins in the future. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955285700&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2016.01.003&partnerID=40&md5=c75a155e5df021f5c384da064e199a84
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11690
|
| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Mishra V.,Lilhare R.. Hydrologic sensitivity of Indian sub-continental river basins to climate change[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2016-01-01,139.
|
|
|