DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.018
论文题名: Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model
作者: Spencer T. ; Schuerch M. ; Nicholls R.J. ; Hinkel J. ; Lincke D. ; Vafeidis A.T. ; Reef R. ; McFadden L. ; Brown S.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2016
卷: 139 起始页码: 15
结束页码: 30
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Accommodation space
; Sea-level rise
; Tidal wetlands
; Wetland loss
; Wetland transitions
; Wetland vulnerability
英文摘要: The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756 × 103 km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85 km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46-59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110 cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29 cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84960157404&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.12.018&partnerID=40&md5=7ef3b36107d30b33cc2c428b6dc5ddb9
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11691
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Spencer T.,Schuerch M.,Nicholls R.J.,et al. Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2016-01-01,139.