DOI: 10.1002/joc.5399
论文题名: Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios
作者: Sui Y. ; Lang X. ; Jiang D.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e678
结束页码: e697
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 2 °C global warming
; China
; precipitation extremes
; signal-to-noise ratio
; signals
; temperature extremes
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Signal to noise ratio
; Signaling
; China
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme temperature indices
; Internal variability
; Pre-industrial levels
; Precipitation extremes
; Temperature extremes
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation intensity
; signal-to-noise ratio
; temperature profile
; weather forecasting
; China
英文摘要: Using daily output from 29 climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we project signals in 12 extreme temperature indices and 12 extreme precipitation indices relative to 1986–2005 over China associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre-industrial levels under representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). The model output reflects the following projected changes: (1) It is robust and statistically significant that warm extremes are more frequent, more persistent, and more intense than those during the baseline period of 1986–2005, and local signals emerge from natural internal variability over most of China. In particular, southern China faces severe heat stress in summer based on warm extreme indices. (2) It is robust and statistically significant that there are fewer cold extremes in China. Most models show no significant changes in the longest duration and intensity of most cold extremes in southern China and northwest China. (3) The multi-model median shows that more frequent and more intense wet extremes that deliver greater amounts of extreme precipitation occur in China, with a regional mean increase of 16.7–42.8 mm (8–42%) in total amount of annual wet extremes, but these changes are not significant and do not exceed natural internal variability over most of the country. Spatially, the Tibetan Plateau and northeast China have robust and significant changes in part of precipitation extremes, and some changes begin to emerge from natural internal variability at local scale. There are benefits to limiting global warming for China, including less frequent and less persistent warm extremes when comparing 1.5 °C with 2 °C of global warming and a later occurrence of significant changes in climate extremes when compared an intermediate mitigation scenario RCP4.5 with a high emission scenario RCP8.5. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116924
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, China; Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology, China
Recommended Citation:
Sui Y.,Lang X.,Jiang D.. Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38