DOI: 10.1002/joc.5406
论文题名: On the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability and tropical cyclogenesis in the southwest Pacific
作者: Magee A.D. ; Verdon-Kidd D.C.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e774
结束页码: e795
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate < 2. Scale
; Climate Variability
; ENSO
; Indian Ocean SST variability
; Severe weather < 3. Physical phenomenon
; Southwest Pacific
; Tropical Cyclogenesis
; Tropical Cyclone
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Disasters
; Environmental impact
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; Indian ocean
; Physical phenomena
; Southwest Pacific
; Tropical cyclogenesis
; Tropical cyclone
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; climate change
; cyclogenesis
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; extreme event
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; tropical cyclone
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Southwest)
英文摘要: In the southwest Pacific (SWP) tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 76% of the regions natural disasters and have substantial economic, physical and environmental impacts on people and places. Therefore, information is needed to better understand when and where TCs are likely to occur, as this can aid in preparedness and planning. While there is a well-established relationship between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability and tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis) in the SWP, it does not fully explain the historical spatial and temporal variability observed. Therefore, this study aims to look beyond the Pacific and establish a new relationship between Indian Ocean SST variability and SWP TC genesis. This is achieved by statistically relating indices of Indian Ocean SST variability to SWP TC genesis positions. The physical mechanisms driving these observed relationships are then established by studying changes in the environmental conditions conducive to TC genesis. This analysis shows that Indian Ocean SST variability significantly modulates the clustering of SWP TC genesis, where warmer (cooler) SSTs in the eastern and western regions of the Indian Ocean result in a statistically significant north/east (south/west) migration of TC genesis by up to 950 km. Importantly, this relationship is shown to be consistent when the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the dominant Pacific mode) is in an inactive phase (ENSO neutral). Favourable TC genesis parameters including warm SSTs, increased relative humidity, anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity, anomalously negative and low absolute 200–850 hPa vertical wind shear account for the observed shift in clustering. Furthermore, we show that the combined effect of ENSO/Indian Ocean SST variability results in varying risk profiles for island nations of the region, with the two climate modes either enhancing or suppressing individual impacts. Significantly, the findings from this study provide an opportunity for meteorological agencies to improve seasonal SWP TC outlooks. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116977
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Environmental and Climate Change Research Group (ECCRG), School of Environmental and Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Magee A.D.,Verdon-Kidd D.C.. On the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability and tropical cyclogenesis in the southwest Pacific[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38