DOI: 10.1002/joc.5409
论文题名: Climate change projections over China using regional climate models forced by two CMIP5 global models. Part II: projections of future climate
作者: Hui P. ; Tang J. ; Wang S. ; Niu X. ; Zong P. ; Dong X.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e78
结束页码: e94
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5 global models
; different RCMs
; dynamical downscaling
; RCP scenarios
Scopus关键词: Arid regions
; Climate models
; Drought
; Electric power system interconnection
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Weather forecasting
; Arid and semi-arid regions
; Climate change projections
; Different RCMs
; Dynamical downscaling
; Global models
; RCP scenarios
; Surface air temperatures
; Weather research and forecasting
; Climate change
; air temperature
; atmospheric dynamics
; atmospheric transport
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; CMIP
; computer simulation
; downscaling
; extreme event
; monsoon
; regional climate
; China
; Tarim Basin
; Xinjiang Uygur
英文摘要: The changes in mean and extreme climate in China during 2020–2060 are detected with both Weather Research and Forecasting and RegCM4, by downscaling the simulations from EC-EATTH and IPSL-CM5A under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The climate changes under the two scenarios exhibit similar patterns, with stronger intensity under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the mean precipitation, increases are projected in most regions, with the largest relative increase in the Tarim Basin. Slight drought mainly occurs in the south-eastern part of China. The frequency of drizzle rain is expected to decrease in all the sub-regions, but the moderate to heavy rainfall as well as the storm would occur more frequently, especially on the Tibetan Plateau. The whole country would experience much warmer climate in the future, with the strongest warming over the Tibetan Plateau. By detecting the changes in climate extremes, it is indicated that less dry extremes would occur in the wet areas of China, while more dry events in the arid and semiarid regions. The wet extreme indices would increase in most regions, especially in the wet areas. The surface air temperature tends to become extremely warmer in the future over the whole country, with the strongest change over the Tibetan Plateau. The changes in mean and extreme climate depend strongly on the driving global climate models, with wetter and warmer climate in the downscalings over IPSL-CM5A, and the model physics of the regional climate models also exert great impact on the projections. Finally, the possible mechanisms for the changes of extreme precipitation are discussed. The enhanced summer monsoon in the future transports more moisture to China, which could lead to more summer precipitation. As a result, the wet extremes tend to increase. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116983
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Jiangsu Climate Center, Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing, China; CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing, China; Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing, China
Recommended Citation:
Hui P.,Tang J.,Wang S.,et al. Climate change projections over China using regional climate models forced by two CMIP5 global models. Part II: projections of future climate[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38