DOI: 10.1002/joc.5388
论文题名: Projected changes in future climate over the Midwest and Great Lakes region using downscaled CMIP5 ensembles
作者: Byun K. ; Hamlet A.F.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e531
结束页码: e553
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5 GCM
; extreme precipitation and temperature
; heating and cooling degree days
; Hybrid Delta
; Midwest and Great Lakes
; statistical downscaling
; water stress
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Lakes
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; CMIP5 GCM
; Extreme precipitation
; Great lakes
; Heating and cooling
; Hybrid Delta
; Statistical downscaling
; Water stress
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; downscaling
; extreme event
; global climate
; precipitation (climatology)
; water stress
; Great Lakes [North America]
; Midwest
; United States
英文摘要: Despite an increasing body of evidence from observed data that climate change is having a significant impact on different types of biogeophysical systems in the Midwest and Great Lakes region, there still remain critical questions of how quickly and how much climate will be altered over this region in the future. For this evaluation, we make use of 31 global climate model (GCM) projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on changes in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) over the Midwest, we selected ten GCM scenarios which (1) simulate historical climate well and (2) successfully capture the range of future climate from the entire CMIP5 ensemble. We then downscaled T and P projections to 1/16° gridded data sets for two different emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three 30-year future periods using the Hybrid Delta (HD) statistical downscaling approach which was proven to be applicable for daily-scale application by a validation work using historical data. T is projected to increase across all seasons, with ensemble mean changes up to 6.5 °C by 2100 for the RCP8.5 scenarios. P increases up to 30% in spring and winter with decreasing snowfall to precipitation ratio, while summer P decreases moderately (−15%) by the 2080s. Changes in daily extreme events show similar seasonal patterns including increasing daily extreme P events in winter and decreasing P in summer. Growing season P may actually increase, however, despite projected P reductions in the warmest summer months. Regional warming results in decreased heating degree days (−1639 °C days, −32%) and increasing cooling degree days (+318 °C days, +957%) by 2080s, with overall net reductions in energy demand. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116992
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, College of Engineering, University of Notre DameIN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Byun K.,Hamlet A.F.. Projected changes in future climate over the Midwest and Great Lakes region using downscaled CMIP5 ensembles[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38