DOI: 10.1002/joc.5389
论文题名: Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought
作者: Uhe P. ; Philip S. ; Kew S. ; Shah K. ; Kimutai J. ; Mwangi E. ; van Oldenborgh G.J. ; Singh R. ; Arrighi J. ; Jjemba E. ; Cullen H. ; Otto F.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e554
结束页码: e568
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution
; climate change
; drought
; El Niño
; Kenya
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Drought
; Moisture
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Soil moisture
; Surface waters
; Water resources
; Attribution
; Drought conditions
; Kenya
; Natural variability
; Precipitation data
; Relative contribution
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern oscillation
; Climate change
; climate change
; drought
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; La Nina
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; Kenya
英文摘要: In 2016 and continuing into 2017, Kenya experienced drought conditions, with over 3 million people in need of food aid due to low rainfall during 2016. Whenever extreme events like this happen, questions are raised about the role of climate change and how natural variability such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation influenced the likelihood and intensity of the event. Here we aim to quantify the relative contributions of different climate drivers to this drought by applying three independent methodologies of extreme event attribution. Analysing precipitation data for the South East and North West of Kenya we found no consistent signal from human-induced climate change and thus conclude that it has not greatly affected the likelihood of low rainfall such as in 2016. However, 2016 was a La Niña year and we show that this event was indeed more likely because of the specific sea surface temperatures. There is a trend in temperatures in the region due to climate change that may have exacerbated the effects of this drought. By analysing precipitation minus evaporation and soil moisture, simulated by one climate model only, we did not see a reduction in moisture in simulations in the current climate compared with simulations without climate change. However, there are expected effects of higher temperatures that our simulations do not cover, such as increased demand on water resources and stress on livestock. Although we find no significant influence of climate change on precipitation, we cannot rule out that temperature-related impacts of drought are linked to human-induced climate change. © 2017 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117000
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States; Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Uhe P.,Philip S.,Kew S.,et al. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38