DOI: 10.1002/joc.5385
论文题名: Analysis of winter rainfall change statistics over the Western Himalaya: the influence of internal variability and topography
作者: Meher J.K. ; Das L. ; Benestad R.E. ; Mezghani A.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e475
结束页码: e496
语种: 英语
英文关键词: altitude variation of rainfall
; field significance test
; generalized extreme value distribution
; rainy day
; Western Himalaya
; winter rainfall
Scopus关键词: Gages
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain gages
; Altitude variation
; Generalized extreme value distribution
; Himalayas
; Rainy day
; Significance test
; Winter rainfall
; Rain
; estimation method
; precipitation intensity
; probability
; rainfall
; raingauge
; testing method
; trend analysis
; winter
; Himachal Pradesh
; Himalayas
; India
; Uttarakhand
英文摘要: This study investigated a detailed picture of some statistical properties of winter rainfall on monthly and seasonal basis over the Western Himalaya (WH) using rain gauge station data during 1902–2005. Results showed a significant shift in the rainfall and rainy-day pattern during 1960–1970 in most of the stations over the WH. State-wise analysis indicated that Himachal Pradesh has received more rainfall (50%) and rainy day (∼57%) compared to the state of Uttarakhand. Station data revealed that past winter rainfall has changed in a periodic manner with averaged periodicity (epoch) of 20 years in which 1920–1940 was characterized by excess rainfall period while 1970–1990 was depicted as deficient rainfall period. Most of the rain gauge stations showed declining trends of rainfall and rainy days while the intensity of rainfall indicated increasing trends during the 1902–2005 period. Regional-averaged winter rainfall and rainy day have shown a significant declining trend during 1902–2005. It was found that the rainfall trends are mainly arising due to internal variability although short-term trends (signal) override the internal variability (noise) in some cases. Among five goodness-of-fit distribution, the generalized extreme value (GEV) has emerged as the best fit for the majority of the station locations. Estimated monthly assured rainfall at 75% probability level revealed a range of 100–150 mm, which will be useful for agricultural activities over WH region. The impact of topography on rainfall and rainy day indicated increasing trends up to a certain elevation (∼1356 m), thereafter they showed decreasing trends that has been described through a second-order polynomial fit. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117002
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Nadia, West Bengal, India; The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Meher J.K.,Das L.,Benestad R.E.,et al. Analysis of winter rainfall change statistics over the Western Himalaya: the influence of internal variability and topography[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38