DOI: 10.1002/joc.5384
论文题名: Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880
作者: Wang J. ; Xu C. ; Hu M. ; Li Q. ; Yan Z. ; Jones P.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e466
结束页码: e474
语种: 英语
英文关键词: best linear unbiased estimate (BLUE)
; biased observations
; global
; land surface air temperature dynamics
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Dynamics
; Earth (planet)
; Public policy
; Surface measurement
; Uncertainty analysis
; Best linear unbiased estimation
; Biased observations
; Global
; Global climate changes
; Heterogeneous populations
; Land surface air temperatures
; Northern Hemispheres
; Unbiased estimates
; Climate change
; air temperature
; atmospheric dynamics
; climate change
; computer simulation
; confidence interval
; database
; global perspective
; land surface
; model validation
; numerical model
; temporal variation
英文摘要: The geographical extent, magnitude, and uncertainty of global climate change have been widely discussed and have critical policy implications at both global and local scales. In this study, a new analysis of annual mean global land surface air temperature since 1880 was generated, which has greater coverage and lower uncertainty than previous distributions. The Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation (BSHADE) method, used in this study, makes a best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) when a sample is small and biased to a spatially heterogeneous population. For the period of 1901–2010, the warming trend was found to be 0.109 °C decade−1 with 95% confidence intervals between 0.081 °C and 0.137 °C. Additionally, warming exhibited different spatial patterns in different periods. In the early 20th century (1923–1950), warming occurred mainly in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas in the most recent decades (1977–2014), warming was more spatially extensive across the global land surface. Compared with other common methods, the difference in results appears in the areas with few stations and in the early years, when stations had sparse coverage and were unevenly distributed. Validation, which was performed using real data that simulated the historic situation, showed a smaller error in the BSHADE estimate than in other methods. This study produced a new database with greater coverage and less uncertainty that will improve the understanding of climate dynamics on the Earth since 1880, especially in isolated areas and early periods, and will benefit the assessment of climate-change-related issues, such as the effects of human activities. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117003
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Recommended Citation:
Wang J.,Xu C.,Hu M.,et al. Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38