DOI: 10.1002/joc.5305
论文题名: May–July precipitation reconstruction from oak tree-rings for Bohemia (Czech Republic) since AD 1040
作者: Dobrovolný P. ; Rybníček M. ; Kolář T. ; Brázdil R. ; Trnka M. ; Büntgen U.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 4 起始页码: 1910
结束页码: 1924
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bohemia
; Czech Republic
; hydroclimate
; last millennium
; oak TRW chronology
; precipitation
; reconstruction
Scopus关键词: Calibration
; Error statistics
; Formal verification
; Geographical distribution
; Image reconstruction
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Soil moisture
; Bohemia
; Czech Republic
; hydroclimate
; Last millenniums
; oak TRW chronology
; Forestry
; chronology
; deciduous tree
; hydrometeorology
; paleoclimate
; precipitation (climatology)
; reconstruction
; seasonal variation
; tree ring
; Bohemia
; Czech Republic
; Quercus
英文摘要: This contribution presents a near-millennium-long reconstruction of May–July (MJJ) precipitation for Bohemia, the western part of the recent Czech Republic. A well-replicated chronology of oak (Quercus spp.) tree-ring width (TRW) measurements covering the 1040–2013 period was employed as a high-resolution hydroclimatic proxy. Standardized TRW indices were calibrated to selected grid points from the CRU precipitation database, covering the geographical distribution of the oak data used. The oak TRW chronology explains 34% of MJJ precipitation variability during the 1901–1980 period used for calibration. Although the relationship between oak TRW and target data was relatively stable for this period, the coherence drops significantly beyond it. However, two independent verification periods reveal highly positive reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics. Less formal verification based on direct comparison with 14 European proxy-based reconstructions further suggests relatively good agreement in the temporal occurrence of above/below mean late spring–early summer precipitation totals, especially in the 16th–17th centuries. The new MJJ precipitation reconstruction is restricted to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability, which is in line with our understanding of natural precipitation variability. Reconstruction reveals two long periods of low precipitation variability, in the 13th–14th centuries and 1630s–1850s. It also demonstrates that precipitation anomalies of larger amplitude and longer duration occurred in the earlier part of the last millennium than those found in the instrumental period. Negative trends in soil moisture content and gradual changes in annual precipitation distribution leading to higher extremity of precipitation regime may be responsible for the lower sensitivity of oaks to precipitation after the 1980s. The new reconstruction does not indicate any exceptional recent decline in MJJ precipitation. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117044
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Wood Science, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Dobrovolný P.,Rybníček M.,Kolář T.,et al. May–July precipitation reconstruction from oak tree-rings for Bohemia (Czech Republic) since AD 1040[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(4)