globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5206
论文题名:
Attribution of temperature changes in Western China
作者: Wang Y.; Sun Y.; Hu T.; Qin D.; Song L.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:2
起始页码: 742
结束页码: 750
语种: 英语
英文关键词: detection and attribution ; mean temperature changes ; Western China
Scopus关键词: Climatology ; Annual mean temperatures ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Detection and attributions ; Ecological environments ; Mean temperature ; Optimal fingerprinting ; Temperature increase ; Western China ; Earth atmosphere ; climate change ; climate modeling ; detection method ; human activity ; regional climate ; temperature anomaly ; warming ; China
英文摘要: Western China (WC) is located in the arid and semi-arid belt of the mid-latitudes. Understanding the causes of the large temperature increases experienced in this region is of great importance because both the fragile ecological environment and the human societies in WC are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. We conducted a detection and attribution analysis on the annual mean temperature using an optimal fingerprinting method by comparing observations based on homogenized station data with simulations conducted using the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that the increase in the mean temperature can be attributed to human activities. The effect of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be detected in single-signal detection analyses when the response to the ANT forcing is compared directly with the observations. This effect can also be separated from the influence of the natural external forcing in two-signal analyses. The warming attributable to the ANT forcing explains most of the observed regional warming. The models appear to have underestimated the observed warming, suggesting that the projected future temperature increases based on raw output from the model simulations may have also been underestimated. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117084
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China; National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, China; China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Wang Y.,Sun Y.,Hu T.,et al. Attribution of temperature changes in Western China[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(2)
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