globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5195
论文题名:
Decadal prediction skill of BCC-CSM1.1 climate model in East Asia
作者: Xin X.; Gao F.; Wei M.; Wu T.; Fang Y.; Zhang J.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期:2
起始页码: 584
结束页码: 592
语种: 英语
英文关键词: BCC-CSM ; decadal prediction ; East Asia ; hindcast ; initialization
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Climate models ; Climatology ; Mean square error ; Oceanography ; Surface waters ; BCC-CSM ; Decadal predictions ; East Asia ; Hindcasts ; initialization ; Forecasting ; air temperature ; anticyclone ; atmospheric circulation ; climate modeling ; decadal variation ; forecasting method ; hindcasting ; precipitation (climatology) ; sea surface temperature ; summer ; troposphere ; China ; Pacific Ocean ; Pacific Ocean (West) ; South China Sea
英文摘要: The forecast skill of BCC-CSM1.1 model in summer East Asian climate was evaluated with the decadal prediction experiments launched annually during 1961–2005. Results of the decadal prediction were compared with those of the historical simulation to estimate contribution of the initialization. Improved prediction skill is found for summer surface air temperature (SAT) in central eastern China measured by both root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for the forecast years 2–5. The decadal hindcast of precipitation in central eastern China shows increased skill in RMSE but not ACC. Such improvement in East Asia is related to enhanced prediction skill of the western Pacific (WP) sea surface temperature (SST) originated from the oceanic initialization. In the decadal hindcast, the lower tropospheric atmospheric circulation associated with warm WP exhibits an anticyclone over the South China Sea, which resembles the observation. The southwesterly increases over southeast China associated with warm WP, favouring higher SAT in central eastern China. This reveals that the decadal predictions could more realistically reproduce the relationship between summer East Asian atmospheric circulation and WP SST. The 4-year average forecast within a decade shows that the initialization increases the ACC skill up to forecast years 4–7 for summer SAT in central eastern China. © 2017 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117098
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Xin X.,Gao F.,Wei M.,et al. Decadal prediction skill of BCC-CSM1.1 climate model in East Asia[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(2)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Xin X.]'s Articles
[Gao F.]'s Articles
[Wei M.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Xin X.]'s Articles
[Gao F.]'s Articles
[Wei M.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Xin X.]‘s Articles
[Gao F.]‘s Articles
[Wei M.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.