DOI: 10.1002/joc.5242
论文题名: Changing relationship between La Niña and tropical cyclone landfalling activity in South China (La Niña and TC landfalling activity in South China)
作者: Liu K.S. ; Chan J.C.L.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 3 起始页码: 1270
结束页码: 1284
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; ENSO
; Indo-Pacific warm pool
; South China
; Tropical cyclone landfall
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Flow patterns
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Lakes
; Lanthanum
; Shear flow
; Storms
; Tropics
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; Pacific warm pool
; South China
; Tropical cyclone landfalls
; Oceanography
; climate change
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; flow pattern
; La Nina
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; tropical cyclone
; warm pool
; wind shear
; China
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Philippines
英文摘要: This study investigates the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indo-Pacific warm pool sea-surface temperature (SST) on tropical cyclone (TC) landfalling activity along the South China coast and develops a scheme for predicting this activity. In general, landfalling activity tends to be suppressed in El Niño years but a large uncertainty is found for La Niña years. Landfalling activity is generally enhanced in La Niña years before 1997 but suppressed in those after 1997, which may be related to the changes in TC frequency and track pattern over the western North Pacific (WNP) as well as the northward shift in genesis locations. The Indo-Pacific warm pool SST is found to be related to the TC activity over the WNP and an SST index, defined as the average SST anomalies over the North Indian Ocean and the sea near the Philippines, is used to represent this anomaly. A significant warming of the Indo-Pacific warm pool is found in the recent decade. The temperature change of this warm pool appears to modulate the TC activity over the WNP and TC landfalling activity in South China in a La Niña year, with an enhancement (a suppression) of TC activity if a cooling (warming) is found. This difference is related to the changes in the strength of monsoon trough, vertical wind shear and steering flow pattern. Based on these results, a schematic prediction scheme of landfalling activity in South China is proposed. Landfalling activity is likely to be normal or below normal if an El Niño event is expected to develop during the TC season. If a La Niña event is expected, and the predicted state of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (obtained using the persistence forecast) shows a warming (cooling), landfalling activity is likely to be normal or below normal (above normal). © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117131
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Liu K.S.,Chan J.C.L.. Changing relationship between La Niña and tropical cyclone landfalling activity in South China (La Niña and TC landfalling activity in South China)[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(3)