globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0326.1
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85061832669
How long does a 15-year drought last? On the correlation of rare events
Author: Rhee G.; Salazar J.; Grigg C.
Source Publication: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 32, Issue:5
pages begin: 1345
pages end: 1359
Language: 英语
Scopus Keyword: Drought ; Estimation ; Forestry ; Reservoirs (water) ; Stream flow ; Water supply ; Colorado River ; River systems ; Streamflow statistics ; Tree ring data ; Tree ring records ; Water reserves ; Water shortages ; Water supply problems ; Rivers
English Abstract: Communities reliant upon the Colorado River system are at risk of water shortages because of fluctuations of the river's streamflows. The solution to the water supply problem for the Colorado River system lies within a quantitative understanding of these fluctuations during droughts. Streamflow data (direct and inferred) for the Colorado River extend back approximately 1200 years through the analysis of tree-ring records (Meko et al.; Woodhouse et al.). We further analyze these data using a mathematical model to present estimates for the future water supply of the Colorado River by comparing measured streamflows of the past century with the yearly tree-ring data of the Colorado River. We estimate that the Colorado River system's reservoirs lack enough stored water reserves to last through the current drought, which has been ongoing since 2000. If true, it is essential to reevaluate the way water is used and stored for the Colorado River. The methods presented are relevant to any river system whose streamflow statistics are Gaussian. © 2019, American Meteorological Society.
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Document Type: 期刊论文
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Rhee G.,Salazar J.,Grigg C.. How long does a 15-year drought last? On the correlation of rare events[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(5)
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