DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0195.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061791749
论文题名: Mechanisms for and predictability of a drastic reduction in the Arctic Sea Ice: APPOSITE data with climate model MIROC
作者: Ono J. ; Tatebe H. ; Komuro Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 5 起始页码: 1361
结束页码: 1380
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Offshore oil well production
; Sea ice
; Sea level
; Arctic sea ice
; Forecast errors
; Interdisciplinary research
; Previous year
; Sea ice concentration
; Sea level pressure
; Sea-ice thickness
; Wind directions
; Climate models
英文摘要: The mechanisms for and predictability of a drastic reduction in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) are investigated using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5.2. Here, a control (CTRL) with forcing fixed at year 2000 levels and perfect-model ensemble prediction (PRED) experiments are conducted. In CTRL, three (model years 51, 56, and 57) drastic SIE reductions occur during a 200-yr-long integration. In year 56, the sea ice moves offshore in association with a positive phase of the summer Arctic dipole anomaly (ADA) index and melts due to heat input through the increased open water area, and the SIE drastically decreases. This provides the preconditioning for the lowest SIE in year 57 when the Arctic Ocean interior is in a warm state and the spring sea ice volume has a large negative anomaly due to drastic ice reduction in the previous year. Although the ADA is one of the key mechanisms behind sea ice reduction, it does not always cause a drastic reduction. Our analysis suggests that wind direction favoring offshore ice motion is a more important factor for drastic ice reduction events. In years experiencing drastic ice reduction events, the September SIE can be skillfully predicted in PRED started from July, but not from April. This is because the forecast errors for the July sea level pressure and those for the sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness along the ice edge are large in PRED started from April. © 2019, American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117197
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Ono J.,Tatebe H.,Komuro Y.. Mechanisms for and predictability of a drastic reduction in the Arctic Sea Ice: APPOSITE data with climate model MIROC[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(5)