DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0234.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061008252
论文题名: Extreme cold wave over East Asia in January 2016: A possible response to the larger internal atmospheric variability induced by Arctic warming
作者: Ma S. ; Zhu C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 4 起始页码: 1203
结束页码: 1216
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anomalies
; Atmosphere
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate change
; Extreme events
; Model output statistics
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Earth atmosphere
; Anomalies
; Anthropogenic global warming
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Extreme events
; Model output statistics
; Probability of occurrence
; Surface air temperatures
; Global warming
英文摘要: It is argued that anthropogenic global warming may decrease the global occurrence of cold waves. However, a historical record-extreme cold wave, popularly called the ''boss level'' cold wave, attacked East Asia in January 2016, which gives rise to the discussion of why this boss-level cold wave occurred during the winter with the warmest recorded global mean surface air temperature (SAT). To explore the impacts of human-induced global warming and natural internal atmosphere variability, we investigated the coldwave- related circulation regime (i.e., the large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern) and compared the observation with the large ensemble simulations of the MIROC5 model. Our results showed that this East Asian extreme cold-wave-related atmospheric circulation regime mainly exhibited an extremely strong anomaly of the Ural blocking high (UBH) and a record-breaking anomaly of the surface Siberian high (SH), and it largely originated from the natural internal atmosphere variability. However, because of the dynamic effect of Arctic amplification, anthropogenic global warming may increase the likelihood of extreme cold waves through shifting the responsible natural atmospheric circulation regime toward a stronger amplitude. The probability of occurrence of extreme anomalies of UBH, SH, and the East Asia area mean SAT have been increased by 58%, 57%, and 32%, respectively, as a consequence of anthropogenic global warming. Therefore, extreme cold waves in East Asia, such as the one in January 2016, may be an enhanced response to the larger internal atmospheric variability modulated by human-induced global warming. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117208
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Ma S.,Zhu C.. Extreme cold wave over East Asia in January 2016: A possible response to the larger internal atmospheric variability induced by Arctic warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(4)