DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0302.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85060974912
论文题名: Thermodynamic versus dynamic controls on extreme precipitation in a warming climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble
作者: Norris J. ; Chen G. ; David Neelin J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 4 起始页码: 1025
结束页码: 1045
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Extreme events
; Hydrologic cycle
; Mass fluxes/transport
; Moisture/moisture budget
; Precipitation
Scopus关键词: Advection
; Budget control
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Evaporation
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Probability distributions
; Thermodynamics
; Tropics
; Earth system model
; Extreme events
; Extreme precipitation
; Hydrologic cycles
; Hydrological cycles
; Mass fluxes/transport
; Moisture transport
; Moisture/moisture budgets
; Moisture
英文摘要: The moisture budget is evaluated as a function of the probability distribution of precipitation for the end of the twentieth century and projected end of the twenty-first century in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. For a given precipitation percentile, a conditional moisture budget equation relates precipitation minus evaporation (P - E) to vertical moisture transport, horizontal moisture advection, and moisture storage. At high percentiles, moisture advection and moisture storage cancel and evaporation is negligible, so that precipitation is approximately equal to vertical moisture transport, and likewise for projected changes. Therefore, projected changes to extreme precipitation are approximately equal to the sum of thermodynamic and dynamic tendencies, representing changes to the vertical profiles of moisture content and mass convergence, respectively. The thermodynamic tendency is uniform across percentiles and regions as an intensification of the hydrological cycle, but the dynamic tendency is more complex. For extreme events, per degree of warming, in the mid-to-high latitudes the dynamic tendency is small, so that precipitation approximately scales by the Clausius-Clapeyron 7%K -1 increase. In the subtropics, a drying tendency originating from dynamics offsets the thermodynamic wetting tendency, with the net effect on precipitation varying among regions. The effect of this dynamic drying decreases with increasing percentile. In the deep tropics, a positive dynamic tendency occurs with magnitude similar to or greater than the positive thermodynamic tendency, resulting in generally a 10%-15%K -1 precipitation increase, and with a > .25%K -1 increase over the tropical east Pacific. This reinforcing dynamical tendency increases rapidly for high percentiles. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117216
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Norris J.,Chen G.,David Neelin J.. Thermodynamic versus dynamic controls on extreme precipitation in a warming climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(4)