DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.012
论文题名: Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau
作者: Su F. ; Zhang L. ; Ou T. ; Chen D. ; Yao T. ; Tong K. ; Qi Y.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2016
卷: 136 起始页码: 82
结束页码: 95
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Future climate change
; Glacier melt
; Hydrological response
; River runoff
; Tibetan Plateau
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Annual precipitation
; Annual temperatures
; Future climate
; Hydrological modeling
; Hydrological response
; River runoffs
; Tibetan Plateau
; Water availability
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; future prospect
; glacier
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological response
; melting
; precipitation assessment
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; river basin
; China
; Indus Basin
; Mekong Basin
; Myanmar
; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
; Salween Basin
; Yangtze Basin
; Yellow River Basin
英文摘要: The impacts of future climate change on water balance for the headwater basins of six major rivers in the Tibetan Plateau are assessed using the well-established VIC-glacier land surface hydrological model driven by composite projections of 20 CMIP5 GCMs under scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. At the plateau scale, the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 5.0-10.0% in the near term (2011-2040) and 10.0-20.0% in the long term (2041-2070) relative to the reference period 1971-2000. The annual temperature is projected to increase for all the scenarios with the greatest warming in the northwest (2.0-4.0 °C) and least in the southeast (1.2-2.8. °C). The total runoff of the study basins would either remain stable or moderately increase in the near term, and increase by 2.7-22.4% in the long term relative to the reference period, as a result of increased rainfall-induced runoff for the upstream of the Yellow, Yangtze, Salween, and Mekong and increased glacier melt for the upper Indus. In the upper Brahmaputra, more than 50.0% of the total runoff increase is attributed to the increased glacier melt in the long run. The annual hydrograph remains practically unchanged for all the monsoon-dominated basins. However, for the westerly-controlled basin (upper Indus), an apparent earlier melt and a relatively large increase in spring runoff are observed for all the scenarios, which would increase water availability in the Indus Basin irrigation scheme during the spring growing season. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84952636481&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.10.012&partnerID=40&md5=3cadf132b2a8f5ca004da15c92fe3407
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11721
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Su F.,Zhang L.,Ou T.,et al. Hydrological response to future climate changes for the major upstream river basins in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2016-01-01,136.