| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0437.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85060520153
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| 论文题名: | Changes in the MJO under greenhouse gas-induced warming in CMIP5 models |
| 作者: | Rushley S.S.; Kim D.; Adames Á.F.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2019
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| 卷: | 32, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 803
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| 结束页码: | 821
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Dynamics
; Madden-Julian oscillation
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Dynamics
; Greenhouse gases
; Moisture
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Speed
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Moisture advection
; Moisture gradient
; Planetary scale
; Precipitation anomalies
; Tropical precipitation
; Zonal wavenumber
; Climate change
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| 英文摘要: | This study investigates changes to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in response to greenhouse gas-induced warming during the twenty-first century. Changes in the MJO's amplitude, phase speed, and zonal scale are examined in five models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that demonstrate superior MJO characteristics. Under warming, the CMIP5 models exhibit a robust increase in the spectral power of planetary-scale, intraseasonal, eastward-propagating (MJO) precipitation anomalies (~10.9% K-1). The amplification of MJO variability is accompanied by an increase of the spectral power of the corresponding westward-traveling waves at a similar rate. This suggests that enhanced MJO variability in a warmer climate is likely caused by enhanced background tropical precipitation variability, not by changes in the MJO's stability. All models examined show an increase in the MJO's phase speed (1.8% K-1-4.5% K-1) and a decrease in the MJO's zonal wavenumber (1.0% K-1-3.8% K-1). Using a linear moisture mode framework, this study tests the theory-predicted phase speed changes against the simulated phase speed changes. It is found that the MJO's acceleration in a warmer climate is a result of enhanced horizontal moisture advection by the steepening of the mean meridional moisture gradient and the decrease in zonal wavenumber, which is partially offset by the lengthening of the convective moisture adjustment time scale and the increase in gross dry stability. While the ability of the linear moisture mode framework to explain MJO phase speed changes is model dependent, the theory can accurately predict the phase speed changes in the model ensemble. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117234
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Rushley S.S.,Kim D.,Adames Á.F.. Changes in the MJO under greenhouse gas-induced warming in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(3)
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