DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.02.009
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85062148623
论文题名: Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan
作者: Ali S. ; Eum H.-I. ; Cho J. ; Dan L. ; Khan F. ; Dairaku K. ; Shrestha M.L. ; Hwang S. ; Nasim W. ; Khan I.A. ; Fahad S.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2019
卷: 222 起始页码: 114
结束页码: 133
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bias correction
; Extreme events
; Global climate models
; Statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Decision making
; Disaster prevention
; Disasters
; Bias correction
; Climate change detection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme events
; General circulation model
; Global climate model
; Maximum and minimum temperatures
; Statistical downscaling
; Climate change
英文摘要: Climate change is a phenomenon that is unequivocally altering the natural systems in all parts of the world but the alteration in climate extremes may pose more severe and unexpected impacts on Pakistan. The current study provides a comprehensive outlook of observation (1976–2005) and changes in climate extremes between the reference (1976–2005) and future periods (2020s: 2006–2035, 2050s: 2036–2065 and 2080s: 2066–2095). The analysis was conducted across six sub-regions of Pakistan including North Pakistan (NP), Monsoon Region (MR), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Southern Punjab (SP), Balochistan and Sindh for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 were downscaled and bias corrected by three statistical downscaling methods. The spatial disaggregation and quantile delta mapping (SDQDM) method was used for future projections in this study. Changes in climate extremes were detected by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case of temperature, the results indicate a projected increase in frequencies and magnitudes for warm extremes, while it is decreasing for cold extremes in the 21st century. The corresponding trends of maximum and minimum temperature extremes are greater than the mean temperature trend; where the frequency and magnitude of minimum temperature extremes is higher than maximum temperature extremes over Pakistan particularly over North in last half of the 21st century for both RCPs. Also, the average of temperature extremes (TXx, TXn, TNx and TNn) are severe in the order of NP (+4.8 °C), KP (+4.6 °C) and MR (+4.5 °C). In the case of precipitation extremes, most of the sub-regions across Pakistan show a higher increase in total annual precipitation and intense precipitation events with the highest increase in MR, KP and NP and the least increase in Sindh. Despite the increase in total precipitation, numbers of consecutive dry days (CDD) are increasing while consecutive wet days (CWD) are decreasing which can give rise to drought conditions particularly in Sindh. The study provides complementary and consistent climate extremes information over Pakistan for local decision makers to incorporate into policy-making, disaster management, and infrastructure planning. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122277
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Pakistan; Environmental Monitoring and Science Division, Alberta Environment and Parks, Canada; Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese academy of sciences, Beijing, China; School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Science and Technology (NUST), H-12 Sector, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan; Disaster Prevention Research Group, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; Nepal Academy of Science and Technology Kathmandu, Nepal; Department of Agricultural Engineering, Gyeongsang National University, Institute of Agriculture and Life Science, South Korea; Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus61100, Pakistan; Department of Agriculture, University of Swabi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan
Recommended Citation:
Ali S.,Eum H.-I.,Cho J.,et al. Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan[J]. Atmospheric Research,2019-01-01,222