globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.11.006
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85056883398
论文题名:
Granger causal predictors for maximum rainfall in Australia
作者: Kamruzzaman M.; Beecham S.; Metcalfe A.V.; Cai W.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2019
卷: 218
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 11
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Granger causal ; Indian Ocean Dipole ; Rainfall anomaly ; Southern Oscillation Index
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Causal relationships ; Granger causal ; Indian Ocean dipole ; Indian ocean dipoles ; Predictive values ; Rainfall anomaly ; Rainfall patterns ; Southern oscillation index ; Rain ; air temperature ; anomaly ; Granger causality test ; Indian Ocean Dipole ; rainfall ; Southern Oscillation ; Australia ; South Australia ; Western Australia
英文摘要: We describe a novel approach for investigating changes in regional rainfall patterns from short records and for identifying potential causes of these changes. We focus on the predictive potential of past values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and their interactions on rainfall in South Australia and Western Australia. A measure of annual rainfall anomaly based on a signed version of the Hotelling statistic, is proposed. This modified statistic is calculated for rainfall anomaly at 7 sites in South Australia over a period of 59 years. Various plots of rainfall anomaly provide evidence of outlying values and increasing variability over the period. There is no evidence that the rainfall anomaly is associated with past values of temperature or the Southern Oscillation Index or their interaction. In contrast, there is evidence that past values of the IOD have Granger predictive value for rainfall and this is evidence for a Granger causal relationship. A physical explanation for the influence of the IOD on rainfall in South and West Australia is presented. © 2018
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122354
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia; School of Mathematical Science, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia; CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Kamruzzaman M.,Beecham S.,Metcalfe A.V.,et al. Granger causal predictors for maximum rainfall in Australia[J]. Atmospheric Research,2019-01-01,218
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