Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047901059
论文题名: Statistical occurrence and mechanisms of the 2014–2016 delayed super El Niño captured by a simple dynamical model
作者: Thual S. ; Majda A.J. ; Chen N.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期: 2019-03-04 起始页码: 2351
结束页码: 2366
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Delayed super El Niño
; Ensemble experiments
; Simple dynamical models
; Stochastic wind bursts
英文摘要: The recent 2014–2016 period was marked by a failed El Niño favoring a subsequent extreme El Niño with dramatic worldwide impacts. Here this new type of major event so-called the delayed super El Niño is realistically captured by a simple dynamical model for the equatorial Pacific with emphasis on the role of state-dependent stochastic wind bursts. We analyze qualitative analogues for this event compared and contrasted with the 1997–1998 super El Niño in ensemble experiments based on the simple model. In agreement with recent studies, the timing and intensity of such an event is strongly controlled by atmospheric wind bursts, both easterly and westerly. In particular, the early stalling by easterly wind bursts and subsequent development by westerly wind bursts as observed during 2014–2016 is consistently retrieved. We show in addition that individual wind bursts may control the main characteristics of the event only during its early development while sequences of consecutive wind bursts have more important cumulative effects. Another important result from the present analysis is the significant statistical occurence of the delayed super El Niño (around 20–30%) compared with the one of directly formed super events as that of 1997–1998. Such a high occurence is directly linked to the random evolution of wind bursts and is retrieved here for all phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation used for the initiation of the ensemble experiments. These results suggest that the delayed super El Niño is not an unusual type of super event and could reoccur in the future. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122392
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics, and Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York UniversityNY, United States; Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, New York University Abu Dhabi, Saadiyat Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Recommended Citation:
Thual S.,Majda A.J.,Chen N.. Statistical occurrence and mechanisms of the 2014–2016 delayed super El Niño captured by a simple dynamical model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-03-04)