Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047122094
论文题名: Modelling the potential impacts of afforestation on extreme precipitation over West Africa
作者: Odoulami R.C. ; Abiodun B.J. ; Ajayi A.E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期: 2019-03-04 起始页码: 2185
结束页码: 2198
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Afforestation
; Climate change
; Climate extremes
; Extreme precipitation
; Regional climate model
; West Africa
英文摘要: This study examines how afforestation in West Africa could influence extreme precipitation over the region, with a focus on widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) over the afforestation area. Two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) were applied to simulate the present-day climate (1971–2000) and future climate (2031–2060, under IPCC RCP 4.5 emission scenario) with and without afforestation of the Savannah zone in West Africa. The models give a realistic simulation of precipitation indices and WEREs over the subcontinent. On average, the regional models projected future decreases in total annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and total annual daily precipitation greater than or equal to the 95th percentile of daily precipitation threshold (R95pTOT) and increases in maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) over Sahel. Over Savannah, the models projected decreases in PRCPTOT but increases in R95pTOT and CDD. Also, an increase in WEREs frequency is projected over west, central and east Savannah, except that RegCM simulated a decrease in WEREs over east Savannah. In general, afforestation increases PRCPTOT and R95pTOT but decreases CDD over the afforestation area. The forest-induced increases in PRCPTOT and decreases in CDD affect all ecological zones in West Africa. However, the simulations show that afforestation of Savannah also decreases R95pTOT over the Guinea Coast. It further increases WEREs over west and central Savannah and decreases them over east Savannah because of the local decrease in R95pTOT. Results of this study suggest that the future changes in characteristics of extreme precipitation events over West Africa are sensitive to the ongoing land modification. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122409
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Graduate Research Program - West African Climate System, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria; Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria; Department of Agricultural and Food Engineering, Afe Babalola University, Ado Ekiti, Nigeria
Recommended Citation:
Odoulami R.C.,Abiodun B.J.,Ajayi A.E.. Modelling the potential impacts of afforestation on extreme precipitation over West Africa[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-03-04)