Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85046704134
论文题名: Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections
作者: Tan X. ; Gan T.Y. ; Chen S. ; Liu B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期: 2019-03-04 起始页码: 2105
结束页码: 2124
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Distribution changes
; Large-scale climate patterns
; Precipitation
; Spatiotemporal quantile regression
; Teleconnections
英文摘要: Climate change and large-scale climate patterns may result in changes in probability distributions of climate variables that are associated with changes in the mean and variability, and severity of extreme climate events. In this paper, we applied a flexible framework based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile (BSTQR) model to identify climate changes at different quantile levels and their teleconnections to large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA). Using the BSTQR model with time (year) as a covariate, we estimated changes in Canadian winter precipitation and their uncertainties at different quantile levels. There were some stations in eastern Canada showing distributional changes in winter precipitation such as an increase in low quantiles but a decrease in high quantiles. Because quantile functions in the BSTQR model vary with space and time and assimilate spatiotemporal precipitation data, the BSTQR model produced much spatially smoother and less uncertain quantile changes than the classic regression without considering spatiotemporal correlations. Using the BSTQR model with five teleconnection indices (i.e., SOI, PDO, PNA, NP and NAO) as covariates, we investigated effects of large-scale climate patterns on Canadian winter precipitation at different quantile levels. Winter precipitation responses to these five teleconnections were found to occur differently at different quantile levels. Effects of five teleconnections on Canadian winter precipitation were stronger at low and high than at medium quantile levels. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122417
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2W2, Canada; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China
Recommended Citation:
Tan X.,Gan T.Y.,Chen S.,et al. Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-03-04)