globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045740431
论文题名:
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
作者: Vautard R.; Christidis N.; Ciavarella A.; Alvarez-Castro C.; Bellprat O.; Christiansen B.; Colfescu I.; Cowan T.; Doblas-Reyes F.; Eden J.; Hauser M.; Hegerl G.; Hempelmann N.; Klehmet K.; Lott F.; Nangini C.; Orth R.; Radanovics S.; Seneviratne S.I.; van Oldenborgh G.J.; Stott P.; Tett S.; Wilcox L.; Yiou P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:2019-01-02
起始页码: 1187
结束页码: 1210
语种: 英语
英文摘要: A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122431
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, France; UK Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Eh9 3jw, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, P. O. Box 243, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Vautard R.,Christidis N.,Ciavarella A.,et al. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-01-02)
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