Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044940107
论文题名: Human influence on Canadian temperatures
作者: Wan H. ; Zhang X. ; Zwiers F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期: 2019-01-02 起始页码: 479
结束页码: 494
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Canada has experienced some of the most rapid warming on Earth over the past few decades with a warming rate about twice that of the global mean temperature since 1948. Long-term warming is observed in Canada’s annual, winter and summer mean temperatures, and in the annual coldest and hottest daytime and nighttime temperatures. The causes of these changes are assessed by comparing observed changes with climate model simulated responses to anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) external forcings. Most of the observed warming of 1.7 °C increase in annual mean temperature during 1948–2012 [90% confidence interval (1.1°, 2.2 °C)] can only be explained by external forcing on the climate system, with anthropogenic influence being the dominant factor. It is estimated that anthropogenic forcing has contributed 1.0 °C (0.6°, 1.5 °C) and natural external forcing has contributed 0.2 °C (0.1°, 0.3 °C) to the observed warming. Up to 0.5 °C of the observed warming trend may be associated with low frequency variability of the climate such as that represented by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Overall, the influence of both anthropogenic and natural external forcing is clearly evident in Canada-wide mean and extreme temperatures, and can also be detected regionally over much of the country. © 2018, The Author(s). 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122438
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada; The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Wan H.,Zhang X.,Zwiers F.. Human influence on Canadian temperatures[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-01-02)