Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85062773610
论文题名: Seasonal predictability of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in the North American multimodel ensemble
作者: Wu Y. ; Tang Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Indian Ocean Basin mode
; Indian Ocean Dipole mode
; Seasonal predictability
英文摘要: In this study, we investigate the predictability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) using the recently released North American Multimodel Ensemble dataset (NMME). We place emphasis on the predictability of two interannual variability modes: the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). If defined by a 0.5 correlation skill, we find that the statistically skilful predictions correspond to an approximately 9- and 4-month lead for the two modes, respectively. We then applied a newly-developed predictability framework, i.e. Average Predictability Time method (APT), to explore the most potentially predictable mode (APT1) for the TIO SSTA. The derived APT1s correlate significantly to the IOBM and IOD, but are also characterised by several significant differences, which implies that there is a close link between the variability-related modes and the predictability-defined modes. Further analysis reveals that the predictability source of the IOBM-related APT1 originates from ENSO-induced thermocline variation over the southwest Indian Ocean, whereas wind-driven upwelling near Sumatra dominates IOD-related APT1. This study provides insights into the understanding of TIO SSTA predictability and offers a practical approach to obtain predictable targets to improve the TIO seasonal prediction skill. © 2019, The Author(s). 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122504
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China; Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Wu Y.,Tang Y.. Seasonal predictability of the tropical Indian Ocean SST in the North American multimodel ensemble[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01