globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061337063
论文题名:
Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects
作者: Wang C.; Wang B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Inter-annual variability ; Seasonal prediction ; Subtropical high ; Tropical cyclone ; Western North Pacific
英文摘要: Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans were suggested to explain inter-annual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Here we show that the influences of these “trans-basin” SST anomalies in the three oceans can be collectively understood via two leading modes of variability of WNP subtropical high (WNPSH). The first mode, which is forced by SST anomalies in the eastern-central Pacific and tropical Atlantic, can shift TC formation locations southeastward/northwestward, but has insignificant influence on the total TC genesis number, albeit affects the TC tracks, total number of tropical storm days, and power dissipation index (PDI). The second mode, which is a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode associated with a dipole SST anomaly in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, has a significant control on the total TC genesis number. A set of physics-based empirical models is built to predict the two WNPSH modes and TC activity (genesis number, tropical storm days and PDI) in the peak TC season (July–September) with preceding season trans-basin SST predictors. The predictions capture very well the inter-annual variabilities of the WNPSH and reasonably well the variability of WNP TC activity. These results thus establish a unified framework to understand and forecast the inter-annual variability in TC activity over the WNP. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122542
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters and Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wang C.,Wang B.. Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01
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