| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85061330385
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| 论文题名: | Projected future changes in Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks associated with Polar Lows in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean |
| 作者: | Landgren O.A.; Seierstad I.A.; Iversen T.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2019
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Barents Sea
; Cold-Air Outbreak
; Future climate variability
; GIN Seas
; Large ensemble
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| 英文摘要: | Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks (MCAO) can be used as a large-scale measure of the potential for development of Polar Lows in the Northern North Atlantic Ocean during NH winter. We applied an MCAO index to 30 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble to investigate model-projected future changes in the Nordic and Barents Seas in response to anthropogenic climate change. In agreement with previous studies we found an overall decrease in the MCAO index due to increased tropospheric static stability. We also found a changed seasonal profile, with a stronger decrease in December–January than in February–March, effectively leading to the peak occurring in February rather than January in the Nordic Seas. In the Barents Sea, the reductions were only statistically significant in the autumn and spring, with the winter reduction due to increased static stability was partly balanced by a retracting sea-ice edge. The contribution from circulation changes in mean sea-level pressure was assessed by a cluster analysis in lower-dimensional phase-space, spanned by the projections onto the four leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions. While there was a small but statistically significant increase of the Atlantic Ridge-like pattern, the overall changes in MCAO were dominated by changes in temperature at the sea surface and aloft. © 2019, The Author(s). |
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122543
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo, 0313, Norway
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Landgren O.A.,Seierstad I.A.,Iversen T.. Projected future changes in Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks associated with Polar Lows in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01
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