Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85060993161
论文题名: Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century
作者: Han F. ; Cook K.H. ; Vizy E.K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: African climate projection
; Drought
; East Africa climate change
; Extreme events
; Sahel climate change
; Sahel rainfall
; Southern Africa climate change
英文摘要: A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122559
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States
Recommended Citation:
Han F.,Cook K.H.,Vizy E.K.. Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01