globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85056096220
论文题名:
Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations
作者: Ding Q.; Schweiger A.; L’Heureux M.; Steig E.J.; Battisti D.S.; Johnson N.C.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E.; Po-Chedley S.; Zhang Q.; Harnos K.; Bushuk M.; Markle B.; Baxter I.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:1
起始页码: 28
结束页码: 33
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; climate variation ; decadal variation ; melting ; observational method ; radiative forcing ; sea ice ; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: The relative contribution and physical drivers of internal variability in recent Arctic sea ice loss remain open questions, leaving up for debate whether global climate models used for climate projection lack sufficient sensitivity in the Arctic to climate forcing. Here, through analysis of large ensembles of fully coupled climate model simulations with historical radiative forcing, we present an important internal mechanism arising from low-frequency Arctic atmospheric variability in models that can cause substantial summer sea ice melting in addition to that due to anthropogenic forcing. This simulated internal variability shows a strong similarity to the observed Arctic atmospheric change in the past 37 years. Through a fingerprint pattern matching method, we estimate that this internal variability contributes to about 40–50% of observed multi-decadal decline in Arctic sea ice. Our study also suggests that global climate models may not actually underestimate sea ice sensitivities in the Arctic, but have trouble fully replicating an observed linkage between the Arctic and lower latitudes in recent decades. Further improvements in simulating the observed Arctic–global linkage are thus necessary before the Arctic’s sensitivity to global warming in models can be quantified with confidence. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122648
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Geography, and Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Climate Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Ding Q.,Schweiger A.,L’Heureux M.,et al. Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations[J]. Nature Geoscience,2019-01-01,12(1)
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