Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85062529426
论文题名: Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge
作者: Morlighem M. ; Wood M. ; Seroussi H. ; Choi Y. ; Rignot E.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2019
卷: 13, 期: 2 起始页码: 723
结束页码: 734
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Calving-front dynamics is an important control on Greenland's ice mass balance. Ice front retreat of marine-terminating glaciers may, for example, lead to a loss in resistive stress, which ultimately results in glacier acceleration and thinning. Over the past decade, it has been suggested that such retreats may be triggered by warm and salty Atlantic Water, which is typically found at a depth below 200-300m. An increase in subglacial water discharge at glacier ice fronts due to enhanced surface runoff may also be responsible for an intensification of undercutting and calving. An increase in ocean thermal forcing or subglacial discharge therefore has the potential to destabilize marine-terminating glaciers along the coast of Greenland. It remains unclear which glaciers are currently stable but may retreat in the future and how far inland and how fast they will retreat. Here, we quantify the sensitivity and vulnerability of marine-terminating glaciers along the northwest coast of Greenland (from 72.5 to 76ĝ N) to ocean forcing and subglacial discharge using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We rely on a parameterization of undercutting based on ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge and use ocean temperature and salinity from high-resolution ECCO2 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II) simulations at the fjord mouth to constrain the ocean thermal forcing. The ice flow model includes a calving law based on a tensile von Mises criterion. We find that some glaciers, such as Dietrichson Gletscher or Alison Glacier, are sensitive to small increases in ocean thermal forcing, while others, such as Illullip Sermia or Cornell Gletscher, are remarkably stable, even in a +3 ĝ C ocean warming scenario. Under the most intense experiment, we find that Hayes Gletscher retreats by more than 50km inland by 2100 into a deep trough, and its velocity increases by a factor of 3 over only 23 years. The model confirms that ice-ocean interactions can trigger extensive and rapid glacier retreat, but the bed controls the rate and magnitude of the retreat. Under current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, we find that this sector of the Greenland ice sheet alone will contribute more than 1cm to sea level rise and up to 3cm by 2100 under the most extreme scenario. © Author(s) 2019. 资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122658
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3218 Croul Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, United States
Recommended Citation:
Morlighem M.,Wood M.,Seroussi H.,et al. Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge[J]. Cryosphere,2019-01-01,13(2)