globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85058171366
论文题名:
The diversity of population responses to environmental change
作者: Colchero F.; Jones O.; Conde D.A.; Hodgson D.; Zajitschek F.; Schmidt B.R.; Malo A.F.; Alberts S.C.; Becker P.H.; Bouwhuis S.; Bronikowski A.M.; De Vleeschouwer K.M.; Delahay R.J.; Dummermuth S.; Fernández-Duque E.; Frisenvænge J.; Hesselsøe M.; Larson S.; Lemaître J.-F.; McDonald J.; Miller D.A.W.; O'Donnell C.; Packer C.; Raboy B.E.; Reading C.J.; Wapstra E.; Weimerskirch H.; While G.M.; Baudisch A.; Flatt T.; Coulson T.; Gaillard J.-M.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
出版年: 2019
卷: 22, 期:2
起始页码: 342
结束页码: 353
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Age-structured population models ; Bayesian inference ; fecundity ; mortality ; survival
英文摘要: The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct. © 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122742
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense M, 5230, Denmark; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense M, 5230, Denmark; Institute of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense M, 5230, Denmark; Species360 Conservation Science Alliance, 7900 International Drive, Suite 1040, Bloomington, MN 55425, United States; Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9EZ, United Kingdom; Evolution and Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, CH-8057, Switzerland; Info Fauna Karch, UniMail, Bâtiment G, Bellevaux 51, Neuchâtel, 2000, Switzerland; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, United Kingdom; Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, 28805, Spain; Departments of Biology and Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Institute of Primate Research, National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya; Institut of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte, Wilhelmshaven, 21 D-26386, Germany; Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, 251 Bessey Hall, Ames, IA, United States; Centre for Research and Conservation, Royal Zoological Society of Antwerp, Koningin Astridplein, Antwerpen, Belgium; National Wildlife Management Centre, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodchester Park Nympsfield, Gloucestershire, GL10 3UJ, United Kingdom; Department of Anthropology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States; Amphi Consult, Sciencepark NOVI, Niels Jernes Vej 10, Aalborg Ø, DK 9220, Denmark; Department of Anthropology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States; Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Villeurbanne, F-69622, France; Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, 411 Forest Resources Building, University Park, PA 16802, United States; Department of Conservation, Te Papa Atawhai, PO Box 4715, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand; College of Biological Sciences, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 123 Snyder Hall, 1475 Gortner Ave, Saint Paul, MN 55108, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, CEH Wallingford, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh, Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 5, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS, Villiers en Bois, 79360, France; Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, United Kingdom; Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, 5000, Denmark; Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Ch. du Musée 10, Fribourg, 1700, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Colchero F.,Jones O.,Conde D.A.,et al. The diversity of population responses to environmental change[J]. Ecology Letters,2019-01-01,22(2)
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