globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.01.024
WOS记录号: WOS:000460716200001
论文题名:
Prediction of heat waves in Pakistan using quantile regression forests
作者: Khan, Najeebullah1,3; Shahid, Shamsuddin1; Juneng, Liew2; Ahmed, Kamal1,3; Ismail, Tarmizi1; Nawaz, Nadeem3
通讯作者: Khan, Najeebullah
刊名: ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN: 0169-8095
EISSN: 1873-2895
出版年: 2019
卷: 221, 页码:1-11
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extreme temperature ; Heat waves ; Synoptic climate ; Quantile regression forest ; Pakistan
WOS关键词: SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; REANALYSIS DATA ; SUPPORT VECTOR ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RIVER-BASIN ; NCEP/NCAR ; RAINFALL ; SKILL ; PRECIPITATION ; FORECASTS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The rising temperature due to global warming has caused an increase in frequency and severity of heat waves across the world. A statistical model known as Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) has been proposed in this study for the prediction of heat waves in Pakistan for different time-lags using synoptic climate variables. The gridded daily temperature data of Princeton's Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) was used for the reconstruction of historical heat waves and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data was used to select the appropriate set of predictors to forecast the heat waves using QRF. The performance of QRF in prediction of heat waves was compared with classical random forest (RF). The results showed superior performance of QRF in detecting heat waves compared to RF. The QRF model was able to predict the triggering and departure dates of heat waves with 1 to 10 days lead times at various levels of accuracy. The model was able to predict the triggering dates of 2 to 3 out of 3 heat waves in the month of May, 8 to 12 out of 13 heat waves in June and 2 out of 2 in July and the departure dates of 3 out of 3 in May, 10 out of 13 in June and 2 out of 2 in July with an accuracy of up to +/- 5 days. The evaluation of different atmospheric variables revealed that wind and relative humidity are the major factors that define the heat waves in Pakistan. The research proved the advantage of QRF model to predict the conditional quantiles that help to explain some extreme behaviors of temperature.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/124609
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Teknol Malaysia, Fac Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia
2.Univ Kebangsaan Malaysia, Fac Sci & Technol, Bangi 43600, Selangor, Malaysia
3.Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Fac Water Resource Management, Uthal 90150, Balochistan, Pakistan

Recommended Citation:
Khan, Najeebullah,Shahid, Shamsuddin,Juneng, Liew,et al. Prediction of heat waves in Pakistan using quantile regression forests[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2019-01-01,221:1-11
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