Challenges for achieving food security with an increasing world population are stimulating many stakeholders to consider the impact of climate change on global-regional crop production. One major concern is how the covariations of climate warming and extremes (e.g., ENSO) affect agricultural systems and production. Here, a dual cropping system in the Huaihe Plain was used as a testbed to address this issue. We found that climate warming during 1982-2013 has produced remarkable influences on the dual-cropping agricultural system. For the spring season crop (i.e., winter wheat), a significant negative effect was found with a production loss of (similar to)6.9 x 10(6) tons due to an elevated T-mean ((similar to)2.21 degrees C) (r=-0.508, p < 0.01), which was associated with water stress. For the summer/autumn crops (i.e., rice and maize), a significant positive effect was found, but with a less substantial production gain ((similar to)1.4 x 10(6) tons), supposedly due to the relaxed temperature constraints (an increased T-max of (similar to)1.28 degrees C) for high heat resistant crops (r = 0.495, p < 0.01). The phenophase of the crop growing period was shortened by (similar to)7 days for the spring crop and by (similar to)4.4 days for the summer/autumn crops with enhanced thermal conditions. Precipitation anomalies, especially those associated with ENSO turning from El Nino to La Nina, imposed an additional serious impact on the dual-cropping system through decreased precipitation in the spring and increased precipitation in the summer/autumn. Potential impacts for the future could be derived from intensification of water and heat stresses, as well as the climate extremes (e.g., ENSO and AAO).
1.Michigan State Univ, Ctr Global Change & Earth Observat, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA 2.China Land Surveying & Planning Inst, Beijing 100035, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Li, Fei,Chen, Jiquan,Zheng, Jiajia. Joint forcing of climate warming and ENSO on a dual-cropping system[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2019-01-01,269:10-18