globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
WOS记录号: WOS:000460619200066
论文题名:
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
作者: Vautard, Robert1; Christidis, Nikolaos2; Ciavarella, Andrew2; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen1; Bellprat, Omar3; Christiansen, Bo4; Colfescu, Ioana5,10; Cowan, Tim5; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco3; Eden, Jonathan6; Hauser, Mathias7; Hegerl, Gabriele5; Hempelmann, Nils1; Klehmet, Katharina8; Lott, Fraser2; Nangini, Cathy1; Orth, Rene7; Radanovics, Sabine1; Seneviratne, Sonia I.7; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan6; Stott, Peter2; Tett, Simon5; Wilcox, Laura9; Yiou, Pascal1
通讯作者: Vautard, Robert
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:1-2, 页码:1187-1210
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE MODEL ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; WEATHER ; REANALYSIS ; IMPACT ; PRECIPITATION ; STRATOSPHERE ; TEMPERATURE ; PROPAGATION ; ANOMALIES
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125052
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Paris Saclay, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
2.UK Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
3.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain
4.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark
5.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Midlothian, Scotland
6.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands
7.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
8.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany
9.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, POB 243,Earley Gate, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
10.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

Recommended Citation:
Vautard, Robert,Christidis, Nikolaos,Ciavarella, Andrew,et al. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(1-2):1187-1210
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