CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS
; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
; HEAVY PRECIPITATION
; TEMPERATURE
; FRAMEWORK
; EVENTS
; FRANCE
; IMPACT
; SCALE
; CMIP5
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.
1.Univ Toulouse, Meteo France, CNRS, CNRM, Toulouse, France 2.IPSL, UMR 8212 CEA CNRS UVSQ, LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France 3.Univ Paris Saclay, Gif Sur Yvette, France 4.Meteo France, Direct Climatol & Serv Climat, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Ribes, Aurelien,Thao, Soulivanh,Vautard, Robert,et al. Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(1-2):1095-1114