Climate scenarios for Slovenia suggest an increase in the mean annual temperature by 2 degrees C over the next six decades, associated with changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation. European beech is an ecologically and economically important forest species in Europe, so it is important to understand the influence of changing conditions on its phenology and productivity for the upcoming years. We hypothesise that the ongoing warming and reduction in precipitation during the growing season will shorten the period of xylem development, thus limiting beech growth in the next decades. Xylem formation was monitored weekly from 2008 to 2016 at two sites in Slovenia. Onset and cessation of cell enlargement and secondary wall formation, as well as xylem growth, are used to evaluate climate-growth relationships by means of partial least squares regression and to predict xylem formation phenology and annual xylem increments under climate change scenarios. A positive correlation of spring phenological phases with March-May temperatures is found. In contrast, autumn phenological phases show a negative correlation with August and September temperatures, while high temperatures at the beginning of the year delay growth cessation. According to the selected climate change scenarios, phenological phases may advance by 2days decade-1 in spring and delay by 1.5days decade-1 in autumn. The duration of the growing season may increase by 20days over the next six decades, resulting in 38 to 83% wider xylem increments. The growth of beech is expected to increase under a warming climate in the sites characterised by abundant water availability.
1.Slovenian Forestry Inst, Vecna Pot 2, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia 2.Univ Ljubljana, Dept Wood Sci & Technol, Biotech Fac, Jamnikarjeva 101, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia 3.Univ Zaragoza, Dept Geog & Reg Planning, C Pedro Cerbuna 12, E-50009 Zaragoza, Spain 4.Univ Quebec Chicoutimi, Dept Sci Fondamentales, 555 Blvd Univ, Chicoutimi, PQ G7H 2B1, Canada 5.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Bot Garden, Key Lab Vegetat Restorat & Management Degraded Ec, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Appl Bot, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Prislan, Peter,Gricar, Jozica,Cufar, Katarina,et al. Growing season and radial growth predicted for Fagus sylvatica under climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,153(1-2):181-197