globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4399-5
WOS记录号: WOS:000460902200024
论文题名:
Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads
作者: Ren, Diandong1; Dickinson, Robert E.2; Fu, Rong3; Bornman, Janet F.4,5; Guo, Weidong6; Yang, Song7; Leslie, Lance M.8
通讯作者: Ren, Diandong ; Dickinson, Robert E. ; Bornman, Janet F.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:3-4, 页码:1711-1721
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: EXTREME TEMPERATURES ; CYCLE ; AIR
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The increasing importance of aviation activities in modern life coincides with a steady warming climate. However, the effect of climate warming on maximum aircraft carrying capacity or payload has been unclear. Here we clarify this issue using primary atmospheric parameters from 27 fully coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive, utilizing the direct proportionality of near-surface air density (NSAD) to maximum take-off total weight (MTOW). Historical (twentieth century) runs of these climate models showed high credibility in reproducing the reanalysis period (1950-2015) of NSAD. In particular, the model simulated trends in NSAD are highly aligned with the reanalysis values. This reduction in NSAD is a first order global signal, just as is the warming itself, that continues into the future. To examine the statistical significance of the density reduction, a t-test was performed for two 20-year periods 75years apart (2080-2100 vs. 2005-2025), using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Most continental areas easily passed the test at a P-value of 0.05. These future changes of NSAD will likely have significant economic impacts on the aviation industry. For these two 20-year periods that we examined, the most extreme changes are in the Northern hemisphere in high latitudes, i.e., a 5% decrease in MTOW, or 8.5-19% (aircraft-dependent) reduction in payload. The global average change is about 1%. For the busy North Atlantic Corridor (NAC), the reduction in MTOW is generally greater than 1% and that of payload several times larger.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125298
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Curtin Univ, Sch Elect Engn Comp & Math Sci, Perth, WA, Australia
2.Univ Texas Austin, Jackson Sch Geosci, Austin, TX 78712 USA
3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, JPL, Pasadena, CA USA
4.Curtin Univ, Curtin Business Sch, Perth, WA, Australia
5.Murdoch Univ, Sch Vet & Life Sci, Perth, WA, Australia
6.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
7.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Climate Change & Nat Disas, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China
8.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Math & Phys Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Ren, Diandong,Dickinson, Robert E.,Fu, Rong,et al. Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(3-4):1711-1721
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